Predicting the popular vote, part I

	Popular vote
Model	1	2	3	4
July popularity	0.189**	0.322**	0.315**	0.269**
	-3.59	-5.09	-4.56	-5.08
GNP change	1.523**
	-3.22
In-party Terms	-4.151**
	-3.28
Leading indicators			0.11
			-0.34
GDP growth				0.293
				-1.81
Incumbent dummy				3.832*
				-2.79
Constant	42.569**	36.899**	37.122**	36.167**
	-16.17	-11.63	-11.09	-14.33
Observations	15	15	15	15
R-squared	0.87	0.67	0.67	0.83
Absolute value of t statistics in parentheses
* significant at 5%; ** significant at 1%