The other day Mayor Giuliani excoriated Senator Clinton for not publicly decrying the MoveOn.org “General Betray Us” ad. Clinton’s response was,
Well, I don’t really care about the ad or the various candidates’ responses to it. What I do care about is the Senator’s assertion that Mayor Nine-eleven is dropping in the polls. This doesn’t seem to be the case, and I wanted to use her quote as an opportunity to post a graph of the latest poll numbers, along with using it as a demonstration of how Rasmussen’s results are distorting the aggregate poll numbers for several candidates, including those of Mayor Giuliani and Senator Thompson. To wit, look at the following two graphs:
The first is my standard national polling graph which shows all the poll results for the top five Republican candidates, along with a LOWESS trend line for each. The second is the same graph, but with the poll results from Rasmussen removed. The two graphs tell slightly different tales. In the first, Giuliani is dropping in the polls, while Thompson is charging. In the second, Thompson is still charging, but Giuliani is actually gaining a bit of support since his nadir around the beginning of summer. We can clearly see that Rasmussen is skewing the results to slightly favor Senator Thompson.
The following graph excludes all the other candidates, and highlights the Rasmussen poll results for Giuliani and Thompson (the trend line still excludes the Rasmussen data) to show how each candidate has polled with that organization.
It’s clear that, for whatever reason, Giuliani has polled lower in Rasmussen’s surveys, while Thompson has polled higher. I don’t really have an explanation for it but I’ll continue to look for one.
Rudy Giuliani is dropping in the polls and is unable to defend his own support for George Bush's failed war. Instead of distorting Senator Clinton's record in the campaign's first attack ad, the Mayor should tell voters why he thinks sticking with the Bush Iraq strategy makes sense. The country wants change and while Hillary Clinton is focused ending the war, Mayor Giuliani is playing politics (bolding mine, obviously.)
Well, I don’t really care about the ad or the various candidates’ responses to it. What I do care about is the Senator’s assertion that Mayor Nine-eleven is dropping in the polls. This doesn’t seem to be the case, and I wanted to use her quote as an opportunity to post a graph of the latest poll numbers, along with using it as a demonstration of how Rasmussen’s results are distorting the aggregate poll numbers for several candidates, including those of Mayor Giuliani and Senator Thompson. To wit, look at the following two graphs:
The first is my standard national polling graph which shows all the poll results for the top five Republican candidates, along with a LOWESS trend line for each. The second is the same graph, but with the poll results from Rasmussen removed. The two graphs tell slightly different tales. In the first, Giuliani is dropping in the polls, while Thompson is charging. In the second, Thompson is still charging, but Giuliani is actually gaining a bit of support since his nadir around the beginning of summer. We can clearly see that Rasmussen is skewing the results to slightly favor Senator Thompson.
The following graph excludes all the other candidates, and highlights the Rasmussen poll results for Giuliani and Thompson (the trend line still excludes the Rasmussen data) to show how each candidate has polled with that organization.
It’s clear that, for whatever reason, Giuliani has polled lower in Rasmussen’s surveys, while Thompson has polled higher. I don’t really have an explanation for it but I’ll continue to look for one.
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